In Game of Thrones, “Winter is coming” is both a warning and a reminder to prepare. In our case, it also means updating staffing plans, watching lodging reservations, and hoping the snow arrives early and often. Our version involves fewer dragons and a lot less violence, but shares plenty of uncertainty.

Winter business planning usually begins with two questions: How much snow will we get, and how many people will come? We have come to learn that these things are connected, and neither comes with a reliable answer this early in November. Yet businesses must make decisions now about staffing, inventory, marketing, and cash flow.

The early indicators for this ski season suggest a familiar combination: opportunity, uncertainty, and a need to pay attention.

Nationally, small business owners are feeling better about their businesses. The Justworks and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index rose to 70.5 in the third quarter, up from 66.5. Seventy-one percent describe their businesses as healthy, and 62% expect revenue growth. Yet 54% identify inflation as their biggest challenge. Confidence and cost pressures are sharing the same proverbial chairlift.

That tension matters locally. Business owners can feel confident in their teams and products while recognizing that customers are weighing discretionary spending carefully. A ski vacation competes with other travel, household expenses, and the option to wait.

Vail Resorts’ early pass sales provide another reason for measured expectations. Through September 18, pass product sales for the upcoming North American season were down approximately 12% in units and 6% in dollars compared with the comparable period last year. Those are companywide figures, rather than a forecast specific to Vail and Beaver Creek. Still, they signal softer advance commitment heading into winter.

Our lodging reports offer a similarly mixed picture.

Our lodging outlook reflects a broader softening in advance winter bookings across our western comp set ski resorts. Winter lodging occupancy is, not surprisingly, pacing below last year’s booking pace. Vail has higher booked occupancy than the industry benchmark throughout the winter months reported, providing some level of optimism. The overall picture is one of softer advance demand across the entire industry, reflected in pass sales and a hangover effect of last year’s snow.  

These figures represent early numbers, and advanced reservations will change as the snow falls. Comparing bookings now with last winter’s final occupancy tells us very little. The useful comparison is where bookings stood at the same point last year, and we’re holding our own.

What should businesses do with these signals?

Start with realistic budgets and regular updates. Watch booking pickup, customer inquiries, and spending patterns. Prepare for uneven demand, with staffing and inventory plans that can respond as the season develops.

Make value clear. Guests consider the full trip: lodging, transportation, meals, equipment, and activities. Transparent pricing, helpful service, and thoughtful packages can make a purchase easier. Value includes whether the experience delivers on its promise. Invest in the people delivering that experience. Employees need training, workable schedules, and support.

And collaborate. Lodging properties, resorts, retailers, restaurants, transportation providers, and community organizations all contribute to the same visitor experience. A successful trip creates reasons to return and recommend our valley.

Winter tourism supports paychecks, businesses, locals, and public services throughout Eagle County. Its success matters well beyond the slopes. The early numbers should inform our decisions and sharpen our efforts.

Happy Opening Day. Like Game of Thrones, let’s prepare our businesses (houses), knowing our throne (chairlift) is awaiting, our kingdom (valley) runs on collaboration, and we’re all rooting for lots of (Jon) Snow.

Chris Romer is president & CEO of Vail Valley Partnership, 3-time national chamber of the year. Learn more at VailValleyPartnership.com