In mountain towns like ours, tourism is the lifeblood of the economy. Every plane that lands, every hotel room booked, every restaurant reservation made - it all supports our workforce and vibrancy. That’s why we watch travel trends the same way skiers watch the weather: closely, and with a healthy respect for how quickly things can change.

Right now, the travel forecast (both domestic and international) is facing some headwinds. And while Vail and Beaver Creek remain an aspirational destination with strong demand in the luxury segment, we’re not immune to broader macroeconomic forces.

Let’s break it down.

International travel to the United States has seen a steady decline this year. The numbers tell the story: Overseas arrivals dropped 3.1% in July, bringing the year-to-date decline to 1.6%, with losses driven by decreases from Western Europe and Asia. Canadian visitation continues to collapse, down 25.2% YTD. Last December, the forecast projected an approximate 9% increase in overall international arrivals to the US for 2025. Now, the revised forecast expects an 8.2% decline, with overseas visits remaining well below 2019 levels.

Airlines are responding accordingly. United has already reduced capacity to Canada and is contemplating similar cutbacks on European routes this winter. These kinds of moves aren’t made lightly—airlines don’t pull routes unless they’re seeing real shifts in demand. International inbound air bookings are pacing 10% to 14% below last year from August through October. Air bookings from Canada to the US are 35.6% to 43.0% lower than this time last year.

Consider these capacity changes as a canary in the coal mine.

Domestic travel isn’t immune, either. While 2024 was overall strong, we’re seeing a clear divergence: luxury travel remains resilient, but the budget and mid-tier segments are starting to contract. This trend began in late 2024 and has carried into the first quarter of 2025. Inflation, pricing sensitivity, and softening consumer confidence are all playing a role. United, for example, has canceled 4% of its domestic capacity through Q3 of 2025, driven largely by weaker demand from economy-class travelers. Yet we are fortunate, as service continues to grow at Eagle County Regional Airport.

It’s a tale of two travelers. On one hand, luxury travelers are continuing to book, dine, and explore. On the other hand, families and cost-conscious consumers are pulling back—and we’re seeing this reflected in our lodging pacing data, which is showing softness in the non-luxury segments.

So, what does this mean for us in Eagle County?

First, we must be vigilant, not reactionary. Just because fewer international travelers are expected doesn’t mean intent is gone - surveys show long-term interest in U.S. travel remains stable, even if near-term bookings are down. That’s where strategic marketing, smart partnerships, and community storytelling come in.

Second, we must monitor indicators like airline capacity planning and lodging pacing data, but with a grain of salt. Pacing data can change overnight with a single policy announcement or economic shock.

Finally, we should stay focused on our strengths: high-quality experiences, natural beauty, and a community that thrives on welcoming guests. The luxury segment is still showing strong demand, and that’s a positive signal for our destination.

Our winter season will likely be a mixed bag. We'll likely see solid visitation from higher-end segments and some tightening from the middle. We can’t control international tariffs or inflation, but we can control how we show up for guests and how we plan for the future.

Let’s keep our boots on the ground and take care of our guests. And fasten your seatbelt, because it’s likely to be a rocky road.

Chris Romer is president & CEO of Vail Valley Partnership, 3-time national chamber of the year. Learn more at VailValleyPartnership.com