If you’ve spent more than a few months in a mountain town, you’re familiar with the phrase “We came for the winter and stayed for the summer.” For many businesses across Eagle County and the Vail Valley, that statement is more than a cliché; it is an economic reality. Winter is our key season, but summer does its fair share of work as well.

As we head into our summer tourism season, local businesses are balancing optimism about visitation and activity with growing concerns about the broader economic climate.

The latest U.S. Chamber Small Business Index paints a mixed picture. The survey, conducted from late February through early March during heightened instability in the Middle East, found that 69% of small business owners still viewed their own businesses as healthy. That is encouraging and reflects the resilience that entrepreneurs have consistently demonstrated through pandemics, inflation spikes, workforce shortages, and supply chain disruptions.

But confidence drops significantly when those same business owners look beyond their own four walls.

Only 35% believe their local economy is in good health, a seven-point decline from the previous quarter. Confidence in the national economy dropped even further, falling 10 points to just 28%.

Perhaps most concerning are the sharp declines in planned hiring and investment. The share of small businesses planning to add employees fell from 42% to 30%. This is the lowest level since 2021. Planned investment also dropped to its lowest point in more than a year.

Why does that matter here in Eagle County?

Because our economy is powered overwhelmingly by small businesses. Restaurants, retailers, outfitters, property managers, contractors, healthcare providers, transportation companies, and hospitality operators form the backbone of our community. When small businesses hesitate to hire, invest, or expand, the impacts ripple through workforce housing, wages, local tax revenues, and overall economic vitality.

And there are understandable reasons for caution.

Global instability affects local businesses more than many people realize. Rising fuel prices increase airfare costs at Eagle County Regional Airport and raise shipping costs for everything from restaurant supplies to construction materials. Tourism-dependent communities like ours feel those pressures quickly.

At the same time, local employers continue to face ongoing workforce challenges, high housing costs, and increasing operational expenses. While summer bookings remain solid and visitation indicators appear positive, many business owners are approaching the season carefully rather than exuberantly.

Still, there are meaningful tailwinds that could help sustain economic momentum this summer and beyond. Locally, there are additional reasons for cautious optimism as we head into summer.

Air service into Eagle County Regional Airport continues to expand and strengthen. Community investments in transit, destination stewardship, and regional collaboration continue paying dividends. Our outdoor recreation economy remains extraordinarily strong. Conference and group business remains steady. And despite economic uncertainty nationally, the Vail Valley brand continues to hold tremendous strength.

It is important to acknowledge that many businesses are still operating with thin margins and heightened uncertainty. One (more) poor snow year, one (more) major geopolitical disruption, or one significant economic slowdown can quickly change the equation in resort communities.

That is why supporting small businesses cannot simply be a slogan. It requires thoughtful policy, housing solutions, workforce investments, transportation enhancements, and a business climate that encourages entrepreneurship and innovation.

As we enter the heart of the summer season, there is reason for optimism balanced with realism. Our economy has always been remarkably resilient. Our small businesses have proven that repeatedly. The goal now is ensuring they have the confidence, workforce, and stability necessary not just to survive another season, but to continue investing in the long-term vitality of this community we all care deeply about.

Chris Romer is president & CEO of Vail Valley Partnership, 3-time national chamber of the year. Learn more at VailValleyPartnership.com