Even though the Biden Administration and Congressional leaders from both parties in the House and Senate want to avoid a government shutdown, there is a substantial consensus that a shutdown will occur at the beginning of the fiscal year on Oct. 1.

If a government shutdown does occur, it is likely to be significant in duration with no clear path for reopening the government. What does a shutdown mean?

A government shutdown at the beginning of the fiscal year would mark the fourth shutdown in a decade and the sixth since 1995. In each case, the government was shuttered because a portion of Congress (always on a partisan basis) refused to support legislation to keep the government open absent some change in spending or policy. In other words, some groups of policymakers leverage the “must-pass” legislation to keep the government open to secure their own priorities. While members of both parties have attempted to leverage the necessity of an open and operating government, no one has successfully used a shutdown to change policy in at least the last 25 years.

Each of the previous shutdowns came to an end when the leveraging party relented and supported/allowed for the passage of a bill to reopen the government. This is usually the result of a combination of public pressure and a realization that shutting down the government as a means of leverage is a flawed legislative strategy, and ultimately bad for the American people.

The last government shutdown, from December 2018 to January 2019, was 35 days in length, two-thirds longer than the previous record of 21 days in 1995/96.

It is difficult to predict how long any shutdown would last because the conclusion of the shutdown is largely dependent on when the leveraging party feels the need/ability to support or allow for a reopening of the government.

The history of government shutdowns since 1995 shows a decreasing willingness on the part of the leveraging party to agree to reopen the government. This is important because the best way out of a shutdown is to demonstrate that those wanting to keep the government closed are a small minority within their own party.

In 1995 and 1996, the votes to reopen the government enjoyed near unanimous support from both parties. Beginning in 2013, the leveraging party, especially in the House, has shown an increasing willingness to oppose reopening:

• In 2013, House Republicans opposed reopening 144 to 87;
• In 2018, House Democrats opposed reopening 144 to 45; and
• In 2019, House Republicans opposed reopening 183 to 6.

At the moment, there is no clear path to reopening the government should a shutdown occur. This is due to the very tight margins in the House, the likely difficulty in securing a majority of the majority to reopen the government, and the threats by supporters of a shutdown to utilize a motion to vacate to attempt to throw the House into chaos.

On the other hand, the increasing need for disaster aid funding combined with the normal build-up of pressure during a shutdown could bring it to a quick end, but those pressures are likely to only change marginally from the conditions present at the outset.

Bottom line: In the current environment, as hard as it may be to avoid a shutdown, it would be even harder to get out of it. This points to an extended shutdown with implications for the business community and the economy.

Chris Romer is president & CEO of Vail Valley Partnership, the regional chamber of commerce. Learn more at VailValleyPartnership.com